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TD Cowen sees states retaining edge in prediction-market legal disputes

Regulation

TD Cowen analysts said states may continue to prevail in legal disputes over prediction markets, despite CFTC involvement. Their assessment preceded a Tennessee judge’s decision granting Kalshi a preliminary injunction; the report also said Crypto.com’s Nevada case could reach the US Supreme Court, with a decision potentially coming in early 2028.

The competing state and federal claims could affect whether prediction-market operators can offer sports contracts in individual states.

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Regulation

US lawyers say CFTC may hold an edge in prediction-market dispute

US lawyers told a media report that the CFTC may have an advantage in disputes with states over prediction-market contracts, with the issue potentially reaching the Supreme Court. Courts remain divided, while states argue that sports-related contracts amount to unlicensed betting and the CFTC says federal law governs event contracts. A group of 17 senators has also sought to restrict CFTC funding for its lawsuits.

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