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Jefferies analyst sees state-favoured outcomes in potential 2027 prediction market cases

Regulation

Jefferies analyst David Katz said the US Supreme Court could hear prediction market disputes as soon as 2027, with the cases’ timing and selection uncertain. His report outlines four scenarios involving Kalshi and state challenges, and rates possible outcomes against the company from medium to very high probability.

Potential Supreme Court rulings could affect whether prediction market operators can offer sports contracts under state gaming laws.

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Deals & M&A

Robinhood sees non-sports prediction market growth

Robinhood Markets is recording growth in non-sports prediction markets, with price volatility contracts on Bitcoin, crude oil and gold among its fastest-growing products, an executive said at the Next Predict Summit. The company said event-contract traders often move into equities, crypto, futures and options.

At the NEXTPredict Summit in New York City, held the day before the report, Robinhood's JB Mackenzie described how price volatility contracts tied to Bitcoin, crude oil and gold have become the fastest-growing offerings on the platform. He holds the roles of vice president and general manager for futures and prediction markets at the company, which trades under the ticker NASDAQ: HOOD.

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