US lawmakers question prediction markets after Iran strike bets
US lawmakers questioned prediction markets after contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket covered whether Iran’s Ali Khamenei would leave office within specified periods. Kalshi said it settled its market at the last price before confirmation of his death, refunded fees and compensated traders who entered after the event; the CFTC may clarify whether such contracts fall under restrictions on markets linked to warfare or targeted killings.
Any CFTC clarification could affect the availability of political leadership contracts on US prediction platforms.