Minnesota’s SF 4511 is advancing to a Senate floor vote and would prohibit most bets on prediction markets, including wagers on weather, court cases, popular culture and election outcomes. Sponsor Sen. John Marty said Kalshi’s claim to be a nationwide legal sports betting app does not comply with Minnesota law.
The bill could restrict the markets available to prediction-platform operators in Minnesota.
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Kalshi filed a lawsuit seeking to block Minnesota’s law banning prediction markets from 1 August 2026. The company argues the measure conflicts with federal authority over contract markets and violates First Amendment rights, and is seeking an injunction while the case proceeds. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said the state intends to defend the law.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Minnesota after Governor Tim Walz signed legislation making it a criminal felony to operate or assist event contracts. The lawsuit challenges the state’s ban on prediction markets.
Minnesota lawmakers approved a conference report on Senate File 4760 and sent it to Governor Tim Walz, according to the report. The bill would bar event-contract trading from 1 August 2026 if signed; it also provides for cease-and-desist orders and potential felony charges for continued operation after an order.
Minnesota lawmakers passed legislation to ban prediction market operations in the state and sent it to Gov. Tim Walz. The bill cleared the House 100-32 and Senate 57-9; if enacted, it would take effect on 1 August and cover trades tied to sports, politics, pop culture and other real-world events. Supporters cite state gambling authority, while opponents argue federal oversight applies.
Most sports fans in the United States are not using prediction markets, according to an FGS Global survey. The New York-based advisory and communications consultancy polled Americans on how they are responding to new opportunities in sports, including sports betting and sports event contracts.