Quaest poll to test whether betting ban swayed Lula-Bolsonaro runoff vote

Quaest will publish a poll on 21 October asking voters in the presidential runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro whether the government's measures to ban betting influenced their vote. The poll is due at 10:15 local time, according to the report.

The questionnaire presents a list of issues and asks respondents to name the most important for their vote, citing NSC Total. The options include the government's measures to ban bets, betting sites and online casinos, the increase in Bolsa Família, the end of the 6x1 working scale and the Banco Master scandal. The poll then asks whether the issue changed the voter's choice, reinforced a choice already made or had no effect.

Editora Globo and TV Globo commissioned the survey. It covers 2,154 in-person interviews conducted between 17 and 20 October, with a margin of error of two percentage points, and is registered with the TSE under number BR-08535/2026.

In the previous round, published on 14 October under registration BR-08729/2026, Quaest found that the betting ban was Lula's proposal with the highest approval. Among respondents who knew of the measure, 64% approved and 17% disapproved. The end of the 6x1 scale followed with 61% approval. That support did not carry into voting intention: in the same round, Flávio Bolsonaro had 46% against 44% for Lula.

Reportedly, the new question should indicate whether the anti-betting position translated into votes or only reinforced the decision of voters already supporting the president. The runoff is scheduled for Sunday 25 October.