Lula to raise betting issue against Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff debate

Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to make betting a theme in his next debate with Flávio Bolsonaro, a week before the 25 October runoff, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Allies of the president assess that he will use the betting issue to try to obtain a commitment from his opponent, the report said.

According to the newspaper, Lula is expected to cite lawyer Willer Tomaz, a friend of Flávio, who has investments in the betting sector and, according to the Federal Police, paid for flights for the PL candidate. Tomaz is under investigation in an offshoot of Operation Sem Desconto, which examines fraudulent discounts on INSS pensions and retirement benefits; the Federal Police suspects he passed on resources obtained in the scheme, and investigation documents were reported on 16 October. The lawyer is linked to Rede Loto, which operates BestBet. The company's sole shareholder is Cathedral, registered in Madeira, Portugal. Rede Loto was the first betting operator authorised in Brazil, with a Loterj licence from May 2023; at the time Loterj did not require identification of beneficial owners, so the names of Willer and his partner did not appear in the documents.

Lula signed Medida Provisória 1.394/2026 on 25 September, banning fixed-odds betting and online casinos in the country. He attributes at least part of Brazilian households' indebtedness to betting.

In the campaign, Flávio has separated sports betting from online casinos. On 23 September, in a live with governor Tarcísio de Freitas and mayor Ricardo Nunes, he said he was against gambling in general but defended keeping betting on real sports, which he considers more controllable, and said online casinos must end, blaming Lula for letting the sector operate loosely. The following day he promised that, if elected, he would ban online casinos, including the "jogo do tigrinho", and keep fixed-odds sports betting. On 25 September, the day the MP was announced, he called the measure electoral fraud, arguing that because it is temporary it could lapse after the election; the same day, at a press conference in Rio, he said he had always been against betting and called Lula the "father of Tigrinho".

The senator's position has changed over the years. In 2020 he took part in a Senate mission to Las Vegas and Miami, visited Las Vegas Sands and defended attracting investment for integrated resorts. He joined the Evangelical Parliamentary Front in 2023 and voted against the bill to release casinos in the Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee in 2024. In November 2025 he said betting should not exist and defended taxing the sector at 70%. The campaign has not said what it would do with MP 1.394 if Flávio is elected: whether it would let the text lapse, support changes in Congress or work for its approval.

MP 1.394 received 99 amendments in Congress and is valid until 23 November. From 9 November it will be processed under an urgency regime. The joint committee's page does not yet report on the committee's installation. At the Supreme Court, the actions challenging the measure are with minister Luiz Fux; according to behind-the-scenes reports, he is expected to analyse them only after the runoff, to avoid a decision being seen as favouring a candidate. The AGU defends maintaining the rule.

The ban has the support of most of the electorate. In the Genial/Quaest poll published on 14 October, 72% of respondents said they favoured the measure, against 21% opposed. In the presidential race, the Ipespe/Abrapel survey published on 17 October indicated a technical tie: Flávio had 51.2% of valid votes and Lula 48.8%, with a margin of error of 2.6 points (registration BR-00223/2026).