Quaest poll finds Brazil betting ban fading in Lula runoff campaign

Brazil's ban on regulated online betting lost prominence in the runoff campaign of President Lula da Silva, according to a Quaest survey published on 21 October. Only 11% of respondents who had heard recent government advertisements recalled the online betting ban, the survey found. An earlier Genial/Quaest poll, published on 14 October, had recorded 64% approval among those aware of the measure.

Provisional measure 1.394/2026 was signed on 25 September, nine days before the first round. It prohibited fixed-odds sports betting and regulated online casino games, and set restrictions on advertising and new deposits.

An analysis, based on transcripts of 46 videos from Lula's YouTube channel, recorded a fall in references to online betting. The average went from 11 references per video during the first-round campaign to four in the runoff. The topic had appeared in all publications analysed between 1 September and 4 October, but was later absent from some of the president's speeches, including the televised debate of 18 October.

Among respondents who had heard of an official measure in the past month, 60% considered the advertisements to have an electoral purpose, against 32% who judged them necessary despite being made during the campaign. Five per cent said both motivations were present, and 42% of all respondents said they had not heard of any of the advertisements.

Football clubs questioned the effect of the ban on a relevant source of sponsorship and revenue. Lula's criticism of teams' dependence on betting houses drew responses from officials and supporters, and the president later reduced his references to the subject and emphasised other campaign themes.

Four days before the second round, the same Quaest survey placed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate, in a technical tie, with 44% and 45% of voting intentions respectively.