Quaest poll finds 60% see Lula measures as electoral, bets ban recalled by 11%

A Quaest poll published on 21 October found that 60% of Brazilians who heard of recent government announcements by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva saw an electoral motive in them, while 32% considered the measures necessary, according to CNN Brasil. A further 5% said both were true, 1% rejected both options and 2% did not know or did not answer. The question was put only to those who said they had heard of a government measure in the past month, about half of respondents; 42% of the total had heard of no announcement and 8% did not know or did not answer.

Among respondents who heard of the announcements, the increase in Bolsa Família was the most recalled measure, cited by 25%, followed by the end of the 6x1 work scale at 16%. The ban on bets and the package for individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs) were tied at 11% each. The result contrasts with the previous round by the same institute: in the Genial/Quaest poll of 14 October, the ban on bets and online casinos was the proposal with the highest approval, at 64% among respondents who already knew of the measure.

BNLData said the poll reinforces what it has reported since MP 1.394/2026 was issued: approval of a measure in a poll does not mean a vote for the person who announced it. A Folha de S.Paulo survey showed that the average number of references to bets in videos on Lula's YouTube channel fell from 11 to four per publication in the second round. According to SBT News, first lady Janja said she regretted that the end of bets had not produced the electoral impact the government expected.

The claim that the measure was electoral reached the electoral court. The Novo party filed an action with the TSE on Tuesday 20 October seeking the annulment of the Lula/Alckmin ticket and the ineligibility of both for eight years, alleging that MP 1.394/2026 was used to obtain an electoral advantage. In the presidential race, the same Quaest poll showed a technical tie, with Flávio Bolsonaro on 45% of voting intentions and Lula on 44%, four days before the second round.

Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or over between 17 and 20 October. The margin of error is two percentage points, up or down, with a confidence level of 95%. The poll was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo and is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-08535/2026.