Brazil poll finds 72% back betting ban but few change vote

A Genial/Quaest poll published on 14 October found that 72% of Brazilians support the ban on betting. Of the total, 64% already knew of the proposal and approved it, while a further 8% came to support it after being informed. Rejection totalled 21%: 17% already knew of it and disapproved, and 4% assessed the measure negatively on learning of it. Another 7% did not know or did not answer.

It was reported that earlier surveys pointed to the same pattern of broad support for the ban alongside minimal effect on voting. Among beneficiaries of social programmes, 68.1% said candidates' positions on betting would not change their vote and only 1% would move to a candidate who defended ending betting, according to Cruz Consulting/ANJL. A More in Common/Ipsos-Ipec survey found 58% of the electorate does not change its vote because of betting. An Indexa/Broadcast survey found 70% in favour of the ban, but 63% said the issue does not influence their vote and only 14% said it influences it a lot. A Palver survey found only 1% of voters would consider changing their vote after the ban.

With all ballots counted in the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million) and Lula 45.16% (53.8 million), a difference of about 2.3 million votes out of 119.3 million valid votes. At that scale, 1% of voters who went to the polls equals about 1.25 million people, more than half the distance between the two candidates.

It was reported that on 16 September, nine days before the provisional measure was announced, it published an article arguing that banning betting could cost Lula the election. According to data obtained from the Ministry of Finance under the Access to Information Law, Brazil had more than 31 million bettors on 31 July 2026. BNLData calculated that it would be enough for 10% of those recreational bettors, about 3 million voters, to be upset by the decision to compromise the re-election. A month later, the first-round margin came in below that number.

It was reported that Lula, author of the provisional measure banning betting, has not made the issue a campaign theme in the second round. The report said supporters of the ban back it diffusely, deciding their vote on the economy, security or rejection of the opponent, while many opponents are bettors who lose something concrete from the measure. It added that the profile of the bettor, young and concentrated in classes C and D, overlaps with the electorate Lula needs to win back.