Macquarie maintains $11 Genius Sports target after Q3 results
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Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating and $11 price target for Genius Sports after the company exceeded consensus revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates in Q3. Genius reported revenue of $269.9m and adjusted EBITDA of $87.1m; Macquarie said the company’s 2026 guidance increase matched the size of the quarterly beat and described the outlook as conservative.
Genius Sports’ third-quarter beat prompted no change to Macquarie’s Outperform rating or $11 price target. The target implied a 90% gain from the Nov. 5 close of $5.78, senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon said in a note.
Genius’ agreements to provide data to Kalshi and Polymarket helped lift prediction market revenue. Beynon said Genius earns money from acquiring customers, trading, liquidity and settlement, giving it a way to benefit from bettors on exchanges as well as sportsbooks. A more welcoming NFL stance on prediction markets, like those of MLB and the NHL, could offer significant upside, Macquarie said.
Goldman Sachs cut its price target for Genius to $9 from $10.50, while Oppenheimer reduced its target to $10. With the shares trading at about six times EBITDA for the next 12 months, Macquarie said the market was undervaluing a business whose EBITDA it expected to nearly double by 2028.
Genius Sports provides sports data and technology to businesses. It has official data rights from leagues including the NFL, and supplies live data and betting services to sportsbooks and prediction markets, as well as sports advertising technology through its Media division.