IBJR challenges IEPS estimates on online betting’s social costs in Brazil
Regulation2 min read
The IBJR challenged the IEPS analysis of online betting’s health and social effects in Brazil, while saying player health and preventing gambling harm should be priorities. IEPS estimated annual social costs at R$38.8 billion and identified about 12.8 million people as being at risk; IBJR questioned the figures because they drew on interviews from 2022 and 2023.
Brazil's Instituto Brasileiro de Jogo Responsável (IBJR) has challenged estimates used in an analysis of online betting by the Instituto de Estudos para Políticas de Saúde (IEPS). The IEPS estimated the annual social costs of harm associated with online betting in Brazil at R$38.8bn.
The estimate included R$17bn for additional suicide deaths, R$10.4bn for loss of quality of life due to depression and R$3bn for medical treatment for depression. The IEPS put health-related costs at R$30.6bn, or 78.8% of the total. The IBJR said the social cost figure was a theoretical estimate based on costs imported from the UK and did not represent actual spending by Brazil's public health system, the SUS.
The IEPS analysis estimated that about 12.8 million Brazilians were at risk in relation to betting. The calculation used data from the third national alcohol and drugs survey, which classified 6.5% of Brazilians aged 14 and over as low or moderate risk and 0.8% as high-risk problem gamblers. The IBJR said the 12.8 million estimate relied on interviews conducted in 2022 and 2023 and could not establish the current prevalence of the problem.
The IEPS said the expansion of online betting increases household debt, gambling disorder and effects on mental health and social wellbeing. The IBJR said player health and preventing gambling disorder should be public debate priorities, but that the analysis did not demonstrate that a ban would protect citizens.
The IBJR said identity verification through tax registration and facial recognition, restrictions on minors and spending limits were introduced with the regulated market. The safeguards need improvement but are provided for in Brazilian legislation and are absent from illegal platforms. The IBJR said the measures advocated by the IEPS were part of the regulated market.
The IBJR said the SUS should be the main recipient of revenue from online betting. It said health received R$45.8m in 2025 under regulation, but that provisional measure No 1.394/2026 reduces the allocation to zero.