IBJR estimates Brazil's clandestine betting GGR reached R$56bn
Regulation3 min read
In brief
- The IBJR said its LegitBet system identified 60,477 suspected betting sites in Brazil, with data updated to 27 October.
- It estimated annualised clandestine-market GGR at R$56bn, up from R$27.9bn, and said the 101% rise is a simulation.
- The IBJR said 85 federal authorisations covering 82 companies expired on 25 October after a 30-day period.
- IBJR president Carlos Lima said some sites imitate brands such as Betano, Novibet, Bet365 and BetMGM.
The Brazilian Responsible Gambling Institute (IBJR) said its LegitBet monitoring system identified 60,477 suspected betting sites operating in Brazil after the federal government's provisional measure banned fixed-odds betting. The institute estimated that the clandestine market may have grown 101% since 25 September, with data updated to 27 October, according to the IBJR.
In annualised terms, the IBJR estimated that the clandestine market rose from R$27.9bn to R$56bn in gross gaming revenue, a difference of R$28.1bn. The calculation combines data from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance (SPA/MF), a study by LCA Consultoria Econômica and a migration assumption prepared internally by the institute. The IBJR said the 101% growth figure is an economic simulation rather than a direct measurement of the market after the suspension.
The simulation assumes that 70% of the activity previously carried out by regulated platforms moved to illegal operators, while the remaining 17.7% represents the share that ceased. According to the IBJR, 82.3% of the sector's original activity volume remains in operation, now entirely in the clandestine market.
The IBJR said the 85 federal authorisations granted to 82 companies to operate were extinguished on 25 October, when the 30-day period set under Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 ended.
Carlos Lima, president of the IBJR, said the pages exploit consumer trust in known brands, with sites imitating the visual identity of operators such as Betano, Novibet, Bet365 and BetMGM. "Estamos diante de golpes que exploram a confiança do consumidor em marcas conhecidas," Lima said.
On 27 October alone, 436 suspected addresses were added to the database, of which 231 showed characteristics confirmed by the tool, the IBJR said. The system also identified 374 suspected links circulated in monitored channels. The institute said the figures represent addresses added to the monitoring base and are not necessarily new sites created after the provisional measure was published, and that confirmation of the elements examined does not replace the authorities' analysis of the legality of each domain.
Among the addresses identified were pages using names similar to those of operators that had been operating legally in the country, as well as variations with terms such as "oficial" and "Brasil". The survey also found networks registering multiple domains with small changes to numbers, letters and endings.
In episodes reported by BetMGM's press office, a page using the company's name functions as a gateway to another platform, with clicks redirecting visitors to a site advertising a 500% bonus on the first four deposits. The address identified as an imitation is not an official BetMGM channel. The company also reported posts on third-party pages using its name and those of other operators to attract readers, with links directing the public to other betting houses.
The pages analysed showed features including payments via Pix, registrations with CPF and mobile phone numbers, online casino games and bonus offers for deposits or user referrals. Deposit bonuses, a practice prohibited in the regulated market, were the rule, with promises of a daily bonus of R$3.88 and of "up to R$1m per invite", a mechanism that turns the bettor into a recruiter of new players.