The Trump administration is vetting Josh Sterling, who has represented Kalshi, as a possible chair of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, according to media reports. The nomination of Brian Quintenz has stalled, and Sterling has argued for federal oversight of sports event contracts.
A possible chair choice could affect federal oversight of prediction markets and sports event contracts.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most US adults oppose betting on election outcomes and government decisions, amid debate over prediction-market regulation. The survey found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed election betting; 65% opposed bets on military operations and 63% opposed bets on public-policy decisions.
Most US adults oppose using prediction markets to bet on election results and government decisions, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on 12 October. The survey was conducted between 30 September and 5 October and polled 4,506 US adults. It found 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans opposed to betting on election outcomes.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most US adults oppose prediction-market bets on elections and government decisions. The online survey of 4,506 adults, conducted from 30 September to 5 October, found 63% opposed bets on executive announcements and decisions; 69% of Democratic voters and 61% of Republican voters opposed election bets.
Kalshi reportedly opened an investigation into three trades placed before Donald Trump announced Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary. The trades totalled $173 and had potential payouts of more than $9,600, but no evidence has been disclosed showing that the traders used confidential information.
The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight issued guidance on 22 September for US prediction-market contracts tied to individuals’ words or actions. The agency said exchanges should assess possible outside influences, independent verification and surveillance before listing these contracts, while noting the guidance explains existing obligations rather than adding new ones.
Kalshi permanently banned former US congressman George Santos and imposed a $71,356 penalty. The platform alleged he traded using non-public information and made misleading statements about whether he would attend Donald Trump's February address to Congress. Santos thanked Kalshi for excluding him and questioned the platform's future.