Kalshi reportedly opened an investigation into three trades placed before Donald Trump announced Katie Zacharia as White House press secretary. The trades totalled $173 and had potential payouts of more than $9,600, but no evidence has been disclosed showing that the traders used confidential information.
The inquiry concerns how Kalshi addresses potentially informed trading on contracts tied to government appointments.
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Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour defended prediction-market transparency at DC Fintech Week, saying visible transactions help identify suspicious activity. The report cited enforcement actions involving George Santos and Gabriel Perez, as well as a criminal case involving alleged trading by Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Kalshi said it has added employer disclosures and compliance checks for contracts involving potentially sensitive information.
The CFTC’s first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting examined prediction market manipulation risks, citing Casino.com. CME Group CEO Terry Duffy alleged that some of the 2,500 self-certifications since January 2025 breached manipulation standards. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig disputed an example involving Nicolás Maduro, saying the products never listed and trading occurred offshore.
The CFTC has brought legal action against New York and eight other states over prediction market oversight. The Trump administration argues that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction, while a coalition of 44 states seeks state regulatory authority. New York sued Kalshi in July, alleging illegal gambling operations and avoidance of its 51% sports betting tax.
Donald Trump expressed support for US leadership in prediction markets during White House remarks on 19 August. State gambling regulators argue that sports contracts constitute betting requiring state licences, while platforms operate under CFTC oversight. The report cited Kennedy Forum estimates that sports account for 75%–90% of Kalshi’s trading volume and roughly half of Polymarket’s activity.
A lawyer said a Democratic midterm victory would not give states an advantage over prediction markets. The report said congressional intervention efforts had failed to attract sufficient support, while the CFTC and Trump administration backed operators holding permits.