Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said prediction-market products should not significantly affect sportsbook operators’ 2025 earnings. Macquarie kept its online gross gaming revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 largely unchanged, while projecting Q3 online GGR growth of 21% and Q4 growth of 34%.
The assessment informs investors weighing prediction-market competition against sportsbook revenue forecasts.
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Macquarie Equity Research analyst Chad Beynon estimated that US sportsbooks recorded a 0% to 5% hold on Super Bowl LIX, depending on same-game parlays and prop bets. He said those wagers, Philadelphia’s win and losing Kansas City bets at half-time supported operators, while the result was below average for hold; FanDuel separately reported $16.6 million in bets, 19% above last year.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said stronger NFL betting margins in November and December could help DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment exceed fourth-quarter earnings expectations. Macquarie estimated full-quarter hold rates of about 12% for Flutter and 9% for DraftKings, with potential additional EBITDA of $100 million to $200 million and $50 million to $100 million, respectively. The companies were scheduled to report results on 26 February and 12 February, respectively.
Jefferies analyst Kai Erman said SciPlay’s performance is an investor concern for Light & Wonder, while expecting the unit to be no greater an impediment in 2027 than in 2026. Erman considered 6% revenue growth for SciPlay optimistic against Light & Wonder’s expectation that it would grow more slowly than the wider market, and said a turnaround could take up to a year.
The pace of gambling revenue growth and the drag from Light & Wonder's SciPlay social-casino unit were investor concerns, according to Jefferies Equity Research analyst Kai Erman. He acknowledged uncertainty around SciPlay but thought it unlikely to pose more of an impediment in 2027 than in 2026.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said February revenue per room on the Las Vegas Strip rose 6% year over year, while visitation increased 2%. He cut his first-quarter Strip gaming revenue forecast to a 2.5% decline, but said stronger room revenue could put Vegas segments ahead of earnings consensus.
Truist Securities analyst Barry Jonas lowered his EBITDA forecasts for MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment through 2027, citing Las Vegas Strip revenue and visitation trends. He cut MGM’s forecasts by 1% for 2025 and 7% for both 2026 and 2027; Caesars’ forecasts fell by 1% in 2025 and 2026 and 2% in 2027. Jonas also reduced MGM’s price target to $45 from $47.