Kalshi is studying a possible expansion into Brazil in 2026, co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said. She said the company hoped to announce something in early 2026 but had not settled how it would operate there.
A potential entry would raise questions about how prediction markets fit Brazil’s betting framework.
| Date | Company | Amount | Story | Appeal status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini | Not stated | Gemini launches prediction markets across 50 US states | Not stated | |
| Gemini | Not stated | CFTC approves Gemini Titan prediction markets licence | Not stated | |
| Matchbook | Not stated | Matchbook plans UK prediction-market launch from January 2026 | Not stated | |
| Gemini | Not stated | CFTC approves Gemini as a designated contract market in the US | Not stated | |
| Not named | Not stated | Brazil’s SPA issues 67 initial betting authorisations for regulated market | Not stated |
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The CFTC said on 5 November that registered designated contract markets must remove domestic geographic restrictions that conflict with its fair-access requirements within 30 days. Exchanges must also ensure partner intermediaries comply, or explain in writing why they cannot; the guidance comes amid state court orders requiring restrictions in several states.
The CFTC said on 5 November that registered prediction market operators must unblock geoblocked states within 30 days. Under its new interpretative guidance, designated contract markets that cannot comply may instead explain in writing why they cannot.
The CFTC issued guidance saying state-based geographic restrictions generally conflict with impartial-access requirements for designated contract markets in the United States. It gave exchanges 30 days to remove conflicting blocks or explain to the Division of Market Oversight, with supporting evidence, why compliance is not feasible. The same framework applies to intermediaries and other entities providing market access.
The CFTC said state-based geographic restrictions on prediction markets are generally inconsistent with its impartial access rules, and gave operators and exchanges 30 days to lift them or explain why they cannot. The agency issued the guidance on Thursday as a formal interpretation of its impartial access requirements for designated contract markets. It said location alone should not be used to deny access to eligible participants within the United States.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered designated contract markets to end US geofencing that conflicts with impartial-access requirements within 30 days, or explain why they cannot comply. The order puts exchanges offering sports-event contracts at odds with court orders restricting Kalshi in several states and on tribal lands. Chairman Michael S. Selig said derivatives markets must operate nationally.
Within 30 days, designated contract markets must end geofencing restrictions in the U.S. that violate “impartial access requirements,” or give reasons they cannot comply, the CFTC has ordered. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said in a statement that derivatives markets "must operate on a uniform basis at a national scale" to serve the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins defended the company’s planned prediction-markets investment on its third-quarter earnings call. The company projects adjusted EBITDA investment of $900m to $1.05bn across 2026 and 2027, and Robins said customer acquisition costs could take about 41 months to recover if the Supreme Court bars sports event contracts in July 2028.
DraftKings plans to invest $900m to $1.05bn in prediction markets across 2026 and 2027, the company said in its third-quarter earnings release. The projected investment is measured in adjusted EBITDA.
US District Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley granted a preliminary injunction in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi in California on Wednesday. The order bars Kalshi from offering sports contracts on the plaintiff tribes’ lands and requires the tribes to provide boundary maps by 13 November; Kalshi must report its compliance steps within 21 days.
A San Francisco federal judge has blocked Kalshi from listing sports event contracts on land belonging to the California tribes that are suing it. Judge Jacqueline Scott Corley, who sits in the Northern District of California, granted the tribes a preliminary injunction on Wednesday in the case Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi.