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H2 analyst estimates Brazil’s illegal betting market at about 30%

Regulation

H2 Gambling Capital managing director Ed Birkin estimated that illegal operators account for about 30% of Brazil’s betting market, below other estimates cited in the debate. He argued that overstating the illegal share could encourage tighter rules for licensed operators, as a proposed rise in the GGR tax from 12% to 18% awaited a Congressional vote.

Birkin’s estimate and the proposed tax increase are relevant to licensed operators assessing Brazil’s regulatory exposure.

End-of-day close Genius Sports (GENI), USD, to 13 October 2025
Story date15 July 202513 October 2025

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LCA estimates illegal betting holds 40% of Brazil market

A study commissioned by the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR) from consultancy LCA estimates that illegal sports betting accounts for 38% to 44% of Brazil's market, with a base estimate of about 40%. The previous study put its base estimate at 46%; the updated findings were presented at a Brasília debate on 31 August. The research used a survey of about 2,300 people conducted in May 2026.

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