Google blocks prediction market ads in five US states

Residents of Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio will no longer see ads from prediction market operators such as Kalshi, because Google has updated its advertising policy. Reportedly, Dustin Gouker broke the story in his The Event Horizon newsletter and on Search Engine Roundtable. Last week the company placed a prediction markets section into the main Google Ads policies document.

Under the policy, Google Ads permits advertising for prediction market contracts only in locations listed in the policy's location specifics section, and only where the advertiser holds all applicable local financial, commodity or gaming licences, including those required under Google's certification process. Ads and products must comply with local laws, financial regulations, industry standards and other Google Ads policies, and advertisers are told to research local rules for any location they target. The targeted location must be eligible for certification, and the account must have received certification and approval from Google.

Each of the five states has sued prediction market operators to block them from operating within its jurisdiction. Sports-event contracts are not available in Nevada and Michigan.

In a separate case, Underdog has taken Tennessee to court, naming the state, its attorney general and the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council as defendants. The suit follows a cease-and-desist order that sought to stop the company from offering sports-event contracts there. It was reported that Underdog had been warned the previous week of possible fines, civil penalties and criminal investigations, as well as revocation of its fantasy sports operator licence, should it fail to comply. The company lodged the complaint on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee, Nashville Division.

Underdog is asking the court to block Tennessee from prohibiting it from offering event contracts, arguing that they are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that federal regulation exempts them from Tennessee's gambling laws. "Any enforcement action by Tennessee would be meritless," the lawsuit says. Underdog has sued seven states that have tried to ban it from offering sports-event contracts: Washington, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin and Tennessee.

A Kagan Q3 2026 Consumer Insights survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence, found that 10% of respondents had traded on a yes or no exchange during the previous year, while sports event contracts accounted for 70% of users. Awareness without use was reported by 42% of respondents, and 44%, the biggest share, said they had never heard of the prediction market. Among users, sports-related outcomes drew 70%, economic or financial outcomes 36% and political outcomes 33%, while 26% had traded on news and entertainment outcomes and 11% on other outcomes such as word mentions, weather or cryptocurrency. The survey also showed that 68% of people trading on political outcomes also traded on sports outcomes.

On a third quarter earnings conference call, BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt told analysts that the U.S. Supreme Court will come down against prediction markets, since their sports event contracts exceed what Congress intended. "I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress," he said, adding: "I think that it will be shown to not be the case." According to CDC Gaming, he wants the Supreme Court to deliver a result in the 2026-2027 session, but the justices have not yet agreed to hear the case, and the current term ends in June 2027. Greenblatt also brushed aside the CFTC's recent proposed rulemaking that would ban casino-style games on prediction markets, saying: "I think it’s just a matter of time before the casino-like products re-emerge in some other incarnation or just some other form."