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Coinbase expects US prediction markets to expand into mainstream finance

Regulation

Coinbase said in its 2026 Crypto Market Outlook that US prediction markets could become more integrated with mainstream finance as liquidity and participation increase. It expects about 12 platforms currently operating in the US to grow in number by 2026, while warning that competition could fragment liquidity. The company also said unclear tax treatment and disputes over federal and state oversight may affect the sector.

Operators and platforms face uncertainty over liquidity, tax treatment and which authorities will oversee event contracts.

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Regulation

AGA forecasts $29.5bn NFL betting handle as prediction markets expand

The American Gaming Association forecasts that Americans will legally wager $29.5bn through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, compared with $29.4bn the previous season. AGA president and chief executive Bill Miller said prediction markets have stalled growth in legal betting, while the association estimated they had diverted more than $1.3bn in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025.

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