Citizens analyst reports prediction market users had -8% median ROI
A Citizens analyst report found that prediction market users had a median return on investment of -8% from July 2025 to the report’s publication, compared with -5% for legal US sportsbook bettors. The analysis used anonymised wallet data from Juice Reel, according to the report. It also estimated prediction markets displaced 5% of sports betting volume.
The reported loss and displacement estimates inform operators’ assessment of prediction markets and potential competition for customers.