ANJL/Nexus poll finds betting ban shifted 1% of first-round voters

A poll commissioned by the Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL) and carried out by Nexus – Pesquisa e Inteligência de Dados found that 59% of respondents support Brazil's betting ban, but that only about 1% of the electorate changed candidate because of it. The survey, titled "Impacto das Bets nas eleições presidenciais", was conducted by telephone between 18 and 21 October with 2,000 people aged 16 and over, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. Neale El-Dash was the statistician responsible.

Among first-round voters who knew of the measure, 18% said the ban influenced their vote, equivalent to 9% of the total sample. Within that group, 84% said it only made them more certain of the vote they already had, and 6% changed candidate. For the second round, scheduled for Sunday 25 October, 22% said after hearing an explanatory text on the provisional measure that the ban would influence their vote, 14% "very much" and 8% "a little", while 77% said it would make no difference. Among those influenced, 80% said the measure reinforced a choice already made, 7% said it would help them decide, 7% were undecided and 2% intended to change candidate.

The poll found that 90% of respondents had seen, read or heard about betting during the presidential campaign, and 62% said they had heard "a lot" about it. Betting ranked sixth among the most discussed campaign subjects, cited by 20%, but 13th among the subjects guiding the vote, with 9% of mentions, behind health and the SUS (43%), public security (38%), the end of the 6x1 scale (27%), corruption and education (25% each) and cost of living (24%); only the environment (6%) ranked lower. For 55% the subject is important, 14% place it among the main issues of the election and 42% consider it little or not at all important.

Almost a month after Medida Provisória nº 1.394/2026 was issued on 25 September, 65% of respondents said they had heard of some recent federal government decision on betting. Asked which decision, without answer options, 88% of that group cited the ban, meaning only 57% of the population spontaneously identifies the measure. Among those with a family income of up to one minimum wage, 52% knew of no decision, and the rate was also 52% among those with only primary education.

On support for the ban, 59% said betting should remain prohibited permanently, with higher support among women (64%), people aged 16 to 24 (63%) and those with higher education (66%). The figure is below the 75% support recorded by Atlas/Bloomberg in September, though the questions were not identical. When offered a third option, 32% preferred that betting return with stricter rules and more oversight, and 6% favoured a return under the conditions before the provisional measure. Among bettors, 45% preferred a return with stricter rules, 43% supported the ban and 10% wanted the previous model; in total, 38% of Brazilians and 55% of bettors wanted betting back in some form.

Before the ban, 18% of respondents bet on betting sites or apps: 4% every week, 4% some times a month and 10% rarely. After the provisional measure, 4% of the sample said they had bet on sites that remain online, about one in five former bettors; of these, 52% used the same site as before and 43% a different site. The report said the figure is likely underestimated because admitting a practice that has become illegal tends to lead to under-reporting in telephone interviews. Among bettors, 32% rated family indebtedness as bad or very bad, against 20% among non-bettors, though the survey does not establish cause and effect.

The report said the result contrasts with the government's own expectation, noting that Dario Durigan, of the Finance Ministry, had described the contest as a "plebiscito das bets". It also said the poll does not cross its data with voting intention, which prevents knowing whom the reinforcement favours, and that the group saying it was influenced is more favourable to the ban, with 74% wanting to keep it against 56% of those not influenced. The report added that 38% of Brazilians and 55% of bettors wanting betting back in some form does not fit President Lula's statement, in a live with deputy André Janones, that betting "não voltarão mais".