Brazil betting ban could cut R$18bn from legal beneficiaries by 2029

Brazil's ban on fixed-odds betting could remove up to R$18bn in transfers to the legal beneficiaries defined by Law 14.790/2023 by the end of the five-year authorisations in 2029, according to figures obtained from the Treasury via freedom-of-information request and. The measure interrupting the flow is Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1.394/2026, published on 25 September.

In 17 months of the regulated market, the contribution on gross gaming revenue (GGR) raised R$6.64bn for ministries, funds and entities that Law 14.790/2023 designates as legal beneficiaries. The data cover net collections from January 2024 to June 2026 and transfers to legal beneficiaries from February 2025 to June 2026, according to the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance (SPA/MF). Almost all of the amount entered from February 2025, the first month of collection in the regulated market. In the first half of 2026 alone, collections totalled R$2.48bn.

Of the transfers, R$341m went to public security — the National Public Security Fund (FNSP) and the Federal Police — and R$427m to sport. Tourism, the Treasury and sport took 64% of the R$2.36bn transferred to legal beneficiaries in the semester. Public security, the fourth-largest beneficiary, received R$341m: R$165.8m in FNSP transfers to states and the Federal District, R$116.1m to the FNSP itself and R$59.2m to Funapol, the Federal Police fund. The Army Command received R$18.4m in the semester for Sisfron, the border monitoring system, the same amount transferred to state sport secretariats; in 2025 it received R$32.9m.

After the implementation phase in the first half of 2025, collections stabilised. The first half of 2026 raised R$2.483bn, practically the same as the second half of 2025 (R$2.479bn), even with the higher rate in 2026. June 2026 set a record at R$513m. The difference between the R$2.36bn transferred and the R$2.48bn collected in the semester lies in June: net collections that month were R$513m, while transfers totalled R$401.5m. The spreadsheet was extracted on 3 July, when part of June's collection had probably not yet been distributed.

In education, 2025 transfers appeared only in November: according to a Treasury note, amounts from January to November destined for the Ministry of Education and the FNDE were consolidated that month. In 2026, transfers became monthly.

The Federal Police case is the most illustrative. Until April 2026, Funapol received between R$1m and R$2m per month from betting operators — R$16.5m over the whole of 2025. With MP No. 1.348/2026, which reserved 1% of collections for the fund from April, the transfer jumped to R$26.9m in May and R$26m in June. At the May and June pace, the Federal Police would receive about R$318m per year, a figure that would double with the 2% rate planned for 2027 and triple in 2028. According to the Senate Agency, the share comes from the portion that Complementary Law 224/2025 had allocated to social security. The Senate approved the MP on 8 July. With the ban, the Federal Police fund loses the new source of resources just over two months after it began receiving it.

The National Public Security Fund, which received R$503.7m from betting operators in 2025 and R$281.9m in the first half of 2026, loses the entire source.

Until MP 1.394, the government had been increasing the Budget's dependence on betting. In December 2025, Complementary Law No. 224 raised the GGR rate from 12% to 13% in 2026, with 14% planned for 2027 and 15% for 2028. In April 2026, MP No. 1.348 began reserving a growing share of collections for the Federal Police, through 2028. Five months later, the same government issued the measure banning fixed-odds betting. At the pace of the last 12 months — an average of R$413.5m per month — legal beneficiaries lose about R$5bn per year.

The regulated market began on 1 January 2025, with five-year authorisations — 60 months, until December 2029. The spreadsheets cover 17 months of effective collection, from February 2025 to June 2026. From October 2026, the first month without regulated betting, to December 2029, there are 39 months of lost collection. BNLData projected the loss in two scenarios: with stable collection, maintaining the average of R$413.5m per month, legal beneficiaries stop receiving R$16.1bn; with the rates of Complementary Law 224/2025, with stable GGR and the rate rising to 14% in 2027 and 15% in 2028, the loss reaches R$18.0bn.

Adding the R$6.64bn already collected and about R$1.24bn estimated for July to September 2026, months still outside the spreadsheets, the authorisations would yield legal beneficiaries R$24bn over five years in the stable scenario — or R$25.9bn with the new rates. Two-thirds of that amount is lost. The division uses the stable scenario and the proportion of transfers in May and June 2026, already with Funapol receiving 1% of collections. With the escalation planned in MP 1.348 — 2% in 2027 and 3% in 2028 — the Federal Police alone would stop receiving about R$2.6bn in the period, against R$1bn at the current proportion.

The projection is described as conservative: it does not consider market growth or the Inspection Fee, which raised R$105m in 2025. It also does not include the federal taxes paid by operators — R$9.95bn to date — or income tax on bettors' prizes, which goes to the Union's coffers. In 2025, the Federal Revenue collected R$9.95bn in federal taxes from operators — IRPJ, CSLL, PIS/Cofins and social security contribution. In addition, the authorisation process generated billions in regulatory fees. With the ban, those revenues also stop entering.

The collection analysed is the portion that Law 14.790/2023 divides among legal beneficiaries — bodies and funds linked to the Union, such as the ministries of Sport and Tourism, the FNSP and Funapol. These values do not include what the sector pays directly to the Union's coffers.