ANJL survey finds Brazil betting ban shifted one in five players to illegal market

A poll by Nexus, commissioned by the Associação Nacional de Jogos e Loterias (ANJL), found that Brazil's ban on betting changed the vote of about 1% of the electorate in the first round and that roughly one in five former bettors moved to sites still operating. The survey was published on 23 October, four days before the second round, according to the report.

The measure was introduced through Medida Provisória nº 1.394/2026, issued 10 days before the first round, and the government took the subject into its campaign advertising, the report said. Among voters who took part in the first round and knew of the ban, 6% said they changed candidate because of it, and 77% said the issue would have no influence in the second round. Of those who admitted some effect, 80% said it only reinforced a choice already made.

Before the measure, 18% of respondents bet on betting sites or apps; afterwards, 4% of the sample continued betting on sites still online, and 52% of those used the same site as before, according to the poll. The report said the figure is likely underestimated because few people admit the practice by telephone. It said bettors lost deposit limits, self-exclusion, identity verification, the ban on credit and the complaints channel.

The survey found 59% want to keep the ban, down from 75% recorded by Atlas/Bloomberg in September, the report said. It said 32% prefer betting to return under stricter rules and more enforcement, and 6% prefer the previous rules, giving 38% of Brazilians and 55% of bettors in favour of a return in some form.

Among evangelical voters, support for the measure was 55%, below the average, and 43% wanted betting back, according to the poll. Among evangelicals who said they were influenced in the second round, 11% were still undecided, the highest rate among religious groups, the report said.

Nexus identified about 5% of the electorate as open to changing their vote on the issue, including voters who could switch candidate, those still deciding and those undecided, the report said. It named young people aged 16 to 24, among whom 30% said the ban would weigh on their vote, bettors and football supporters as the most sensitive groups.

The report said Congress and the Supreme Federal Court (STF) will decide the fate of the measure after Sunday's vote. It said the election removes the electoral justification and leaves a strengthened illegal market, unprotected bettors, lost public revenue and a sector that was being brought into legality in less than two years of regulation.