Analysts see limited impact on Lottomatica from Italy’s 2027 budget measures
Deals & M&A2 min read
Intermonte and Banca Akros analysts said proposed measures in Italy’s 2027 budget bill could have a limited overall effect on Lottomatica. Intermonte estimated annual concession-related capital spending of about €90m-€100m in 2027-29, while the bill proposes higher gaming taxes on slot machines and higher maximum stakes and prizes; the measures await parliamentary discussion.
The measures in the 2027 budget bill, which await discussion in Parliament, could have a limited overall impact on Lottomatica's accounts. Analysts at Intermonte and Banca Akros reached this view after examining what the budget law plans for the public gaming sector.
The measures focus on the physical network: an extension of concessions, a higher Preu and higher stake and prize limits for some AWP machines. Other measures concern Gratta & Vinci and Super Enalotto, to which Lottomatica is not exposed.
On AWP machines the Preu would go up from 24% to 25%, while on VLTs it would go from 8.6% to 9.6%. A reduced rate of 20% would instead apply to AWP machines returning at least 70% in winnings, versus the current 24%. The maximum stake would double, from one euro to two, and the maximum prize would go from 100 to 200.
Intermonte said the framework appears to confirm its assessment of a limited impact on Lottomatica. It regards the absence of measures on the online segment as positive, as online accounted for about 65% of the group's adjusted EBITDA in the first half. Intermonte rates the stock Outperform with a target price of €31.2. Its analysts estimate a contained impact from the concession extensions and the Preu increase, further reduced by compensatory measures and the sharing of costs along the supply chain.
Banca Akros, which rates the stock Buy with a target price of €32, took a similar view. Its analysts said the Preu increase appears the most manageable measure. They said higher stakes on AWP machines and a probable shift of demand to the online channel could help absorb its effects.