Texas lieutenant governor race could shape 2027 sports betting and casino bills
Regulation2 min read
In brief
- Texas votes on 3 November in a lieutenant governor race between Dan Patrick and Vikki Goodwin.
- Kalshi put Patrick's chance at 75% and Polymarket at 77%.
- Patrick has said gambling expansion needs a majority of Senate Republicans; Goodwin supports letting voters decide.
According to the report, the future of Texas sports betting and casino legislation could hinge on the lieutenant governor race held on November 3. Dan Patrick, the Republican lieutenant governor, is the favorite on prediction markets to win another term against Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin. As of Monday, Kalshi placed Patrick's chance at 75% and Polymarket at 77%, although trading volume in that market was small.
Neither legal sports betting nor Las Vegas-style commercial casinos exist in Texas at present. The lieutenant governor, who presides over the Texas Senate, names its committees and decides which bills are referred. Patrick says a majority of Senate Republicans must back any gambling expansion before it advances.
In 2023, the House approved House Joint Resolution 102, a sports betting amendment, on May 11 by a vote of 101-42, with 100 votes needed. Patrick said afterward that he would not move the measure forward, and the Senate never took it up. Goodwin, by contrast, backs a public vote for Texans on casinos and online sports betting.
Prediction markets have drawn Patrick's attention this year. He told senators in March to examine whether such platforms get around the state's gambling laws. A Senate hearing in September considered prohibiting or regulating prediction markets. No candidate in the race has publicly suggested legalising online casino play, and the 2023 amendment dealt only with sports wagering.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is being challenged by Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Kalshi's pricing put Abbott's chance of winning at 63% and Hinojosa's at 37%, versus roughly 64% and 35% on Polymarket. Abbott earlier said online sports betting posed no personal problem for him, though recently he has voiced concern over casino gaming. In 2023 Hinojosa voted against HJR 102, and she has not put out a plan on sports betting or casinos. A governor may push for bills but has no power to put a constitutional amendment on the ballot or to veto the resolution behind one.