Centemero calls for safeguards on prediction markets in Italy

Giulio Centemero, a deputy for Lega, called for clearer classification of prediction-market products and stronger user protections, in comments on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi. He set out three priorities: qualifying products by their characteristics and actual risks, strengthening user protection with particular attention to young people, and preventing information abuse and conflicts of interest.

Centemero cited a figure that 68% of Polymarket accounts that placed bets above $100 lost money. He said the most profitable account was reported to have made gains of $12m through an apparently automated strategy with high trading volumes and repeated small margins.

The deputy said the differences between users of such platforms can be considerable. "Dietro un'interfaccia accessibile a tutti possono quindi esserci differenze enormi di informazioni, competenze e capacità tecnologiche", he said.

Centemero also raised markets that allow betting on the outcome of political decisions. He said that anyone holding confidential information in advance could draw an economic advantage from it, raising questions about the fairness of transactions and about trust in institutions.

He linked his three priorities to the model of regulatory sandboxes, controlled testing environments that allow new products and services to be analysed under the supervision of the competent authorities before any legislative measures are defined. "Chi sostiene l'innovazione deve occuparsi anche della qualità delle regole che la accompagnano", he said, adding that the principle guides his work on sandboxes: knowing new models, testing under supervision and building proportionate protections.

Centemero said the issue also concerns financial education and the need to make the nature of transactions on prediction platforms understandable to users. "L'educazione finanziaria passa anche da qui: comprendere la differenza tra investire in un'impresa e puntare sull'esito di un evento", he said.