Polymarket records US$249m in Brazilian election contracts

Polymarket recorded $249m in trading on Brazil's national election, according to a report. Contracts on a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro accounted for $62m, while contracts on Lula accounted for $48.5m. The report said the Brazilian election's volume placed it prominently on the prediction-market platform but left it well behind the totals generated by United States races.

Other candidacies also drew trading, according to the report. Tarcísio de Freitas accounted for $15m and Michelle Bolsonaro for $10m, a figure matched by Eduardo Bolsonaro and Ratinho Júnior. The report said each bettor's return depends on when the contracts were bought.

The report compared the Brazilian figures with United States markets on Polymarket. Contracts on who will be the Democratic candidate in the 2028 elections totalled $1.3bn, with a further $721m on the eventual winner, while the most recent New York mayoral election recorded $430m. Among markets mentioning Brazil, the presidential election trailed only betting on the World Cup winner, which recorded $4.4bn, of which $82m was on the Brazilian national team.

The report also described a market on Flávio Bolsonaro's future in the United States, where he travelled after the Supremo Tribunal Federal ordered him to hand over his passport. According to the contracts traded, 43% of bettors expect Donald Trump to receive him in 2026 and 60% expect the US government to grant him political asylum.

On its business model, the report said Polymarket does not retain the amounts lost by bettors, as casinos and sports-betting platforms do, but distributes the full amount among users who correctly predicted the outcome. On political markets subject to charges, the platform's commission can reach 1% of the traded value, at that level when the probability assigned to the event is 50%. The financial-intelligence tool Sacra estimates annual revenue of $1bn and a valuation of $15bn, though the company's capital is closed, according to the report.

Polymarket's operation in Brazil has been blocked since April, when the federal government ordered 27 platforms blocked, including Polymarket and Kalshi, on the basis that they do not fit Brazilian betting legislation, the report said. The measure was accompanied by a Conselho Monetário Nacional resolution prohibiting the offer and trading in the country of derivative contracts linked to political, electoral, sports and entertainment outcomes.

The company describes itself as a global platform that provides data generated by prediction markets, in which users trade contracts on event outcomes and that trading activity determines the probabilities shown, which it says are not opinion polls or official projections and do not represent support for any candidacy. In a statement sent by its press office in Brazil, the company said it maintains dialogue with regulators in different countries on developing suitable rules for prediction markets and that in Brazil it is open to contributing its technical experience to discussions with the authorities, citing the informational nature of the category as well as transparency, market integrity and user protection.