PPI study finds no bankruptcy surge linked to legal US sports betting

Prediction market odds measurably influence voters' expectations about election outcomes, according to a study by the Brennan Center for Justice. Candidates with a 67% chance of winning on Kalshi were 10% more likely to be seen as likely winners than those at 50%, and odds of 84% raised that likelihood by 20%. Warnings about the limitations of prediction markets did not reduce reliance on them, the study found.

Research from the Brennan Center for Justice indicates that the betting odds shown on prediction markets shape how voters expect elections to turn out. Participants in the experiment looked at pairs of made-up congressional contests and had to say who they thought would win. For every candidate they saw a win probability taken either from NBC News polling or from the prediction market platform Kalshi. Researchers changed those polling numbers and market odds at random, which let them see how people responded when the two sources pointed in different directions.