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PPI study finds bankruptcies fell faster in states with online sports betting

Regulation

A Progressive Policy Institute report comparing consumer bankruptcy filings from 2019 to 2024 found a 40% decline in states that had legalised online sports betting by 2021, against a 34% national fall. The report said credit-score gains in early-adopter states were similar to the national increase and noted that betting expenditure remained near 1% of personal consumption. It also called for attention to problem gambling and consumer protection.

The findings inform policy debate over the financial effects of legal sports betting and the need for consumer safeguards.

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Regulation

Brennan Center study finds prediction market odds sway voters' election expectations

Prediction market odds measurably influence voters' expectations about election outcomes, according to a study by the Brennan Center for Justice. Candidates with a 67% chance of winning on Kalshi were 10% more likely to be seen as likely winners than those at 50%, and odds of 84% raised that likelihood by 20%. Warnings about the limitations of prediction markets did not reduce reliance on them, the study found.

Research from the Brennan Center for Justice indicates that the betting odds shown on prediction markets shape how voters expect elections to turn out. Participants in the experiment looked at pairs of made-up congressional contests and had to say who they thought would win. For every candidate they saw a win probability taken either from NBC News polling or from the prediction market platform Kalshi. Researchers changed those polling numbers and market odds at random, which let them see how people responded when the two sources pointed in different directions.

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