Pentagon bans staff betting on secret operations, including prediction markets

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has barred Department of Defense personnel from using non-public information to bet on US military operations, a directive that explicitly includes prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. The decision was taken in a memorandum sent to Pentagon leaders, according to CBS News.

The memorandum states that unusual betting flows on certain events could reveal operations and movements of the US armed forces to foreign intelligence services, putting military personnel at risk. Breaches of the directive may lead to disciplinary or criminal sanctions under federal law or the Uniform Code of Military Justice, according to the document as reported.

The directive follows a case that emerged in April, when a member of the US special forces was arrested for betting on Polymarket on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro before the US military operation was made public.