Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said prediction markets are not expected to materially affect US sportsbook operators’ 2025 earnings. He said Macquarie left its online gross gaming revenue estimates for 2025 to 2027 largely unchanged, while forecasting Q3 online GGR growth of 21% and Q4 growth of 34%.
The unchanged estimates inform investors’ assessment of prediction-market competition and sportsbook performance.
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PENN Entertainment will not enter sports prediction markets while their legal status remains uncertain, chief executive Jay Snowden told investors and analysts. Snowden said the company would not risk its gaming licences and would stay close to regulators as litigation continues in federal and state courts across the US.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said on a podcast that prediction market operators such as Kalshi are running illegal sportsbooks, and that Nevada has no fallback plan if the Supreme Court sides with them. He urged tribes and licensees to hold firm, even though several tribes have partnered with Kalshi this month. The comments followed a CFTC interim rule of 9 October excluding casino-style gambling products from the definition of a swap, alongside a proposed rule covering event contracts.
An MGM takeover bid collapsed while a $17.6bn Caesars deal progressed. The outlet also reported investor reactions to DraftKings’ prediction-market strategy and CFTC consideration of margin trading.
J.P. Morgan and Bank of America analysts said first-quarter results will reflect weaker consumer sentiment and pressure on digital gaming from prediction markets. Bank of America reported gaming stocks down 6% for the year, with US operators up 1%, Macau operators down 14% and digital and online gaming stocks down 36%.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan and Jefferies discussed investor interest in gaming stocks, while Macquarie reviewed BetMGM’s third-quarter update, according to the report. Macquarie cited BetMGM net revenue of $710 million, up 7% year over year, and EBITDA of $86 million, more than double the prior-year figure. BetMGM reiterated its FY26 guidance, including revenue of $2.9bn-$3.1bn and EBITDA of $300m-$350m.