Macquarie expects online gaming companies to outperform second-quarter 2025 expectations, reportedly citing higher betting volumes and stronger hold rates. The analyst firm raised its forecast for online gross gaming revenue growth in 2025 to 25%, from 20%, while noting regulatory tax pressures in several US states.
Operators and investors may reassess 2025 revenue and earnings expectations against the forecast and tax risks.
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Gaming companies are due to report first-quarter results from this week, with Las Vegas Sands scheduled to report first, followed by other listed operators. Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Grambling said casino trends weakened from the previous quarter, while digital handle remained stable. Deutsche Bank lowered its Macau forecasts for the first quarter of 2025 and subsequent periods, according to the report.
BetMGM reported 2025 net revenue of $2.8bn, compared with $2.1bn in 2024, and said quarterly net income reached $60m. Annual iGaming revenue was $1.8bn and online sports betting revenue was $903m; chief executive Adam Greenblatt said both businesses posted record results.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said stronger NFL betting margins in November and December could help DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment exceed fourth-quarter earnings expectations. Macquarie estimated full-quarter hold rates of about 12% for Flutter and 9% for DraftKings, with potential additional EBITDA of $100 million to $200 million and $50 million to $100 million, respectively. The companies were scheduled to report results on 26 February and 12 February, respectively.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan and Jefferies discussed investor interest in gaming stocks, while Macquarie reviewed BetMGM’s third-quarter update, according to the report. Macquarie cited BetMGM net revenue of $710 million, up 7% year over year, and EBITDA of $86 million, more than double the prior-year figure. BetMGM reiterated its FY26 guidance, including revenue of $2.9bn-$3.1bn and EBITDA of $300m-$350m.
Nevada Gaming Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer said on a podcast that prediction market operators such as Kalshi are running illegal sportsbooks, and that Nevada has no fallback plan if the Supreme Court sides with them. He urged tribes and licensees to hold firm, even though several tribes have partnered with Kalshi this month. The comments followed a CFTC interim rule of 9 October excluding casino-style gambling products from the definition of a swap, alongside a proposed rule covering event contracts.