Lula campaign cuts bets mentions from 11 to four per video

The campaign of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reduced its references to betting platforms after the first round of Brazil's presidential election, according to an analysis by Folha de S.Paulo of 46 videos published on Lula's YouTube channel up to 15 October. The average number of mentions of the term "bets" per video fell from 11 during the first-round campaign to four in the second-round race.

The subject appeared in all of the presidential channel's videos between 1 September and 4 October, the date of the first round of voting. In the second round, Lula set the topic aside on two occasions, including the TV Band debate broadcast on Sunday 18 October. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ended the first stage of the contest with a lead of 2 million votes.

First lady Janja da Silva said the end of betting did not produce the electoral impact the government expected. According to SBT News, in a video also seen by Folha de S.Paulo, she said in tears that she had expected a first-round victory because of the initiative. A Quaest poll indicated that 64% of respondents knew of the end of the regulated betting market, and only 8% of that group disapproved of the government's decision; the source states it was not clear how far that approval converted into votes.

Carolina de Paula, a political scientist at the Institute of Social and Political Studies of the State University of Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ), said campaigns continually calibrate their themes. "These metrics help, as does press coverage, which is also a parameter for the campaign," she said. In her view the pullback does not represent failure: "The theme loses strength and runs out. People also stop looking for it on social networks."

The source reports that the government underestimated the reaction of the football world. Clubs organised a campaign in defence of betting sites under the slogan "fim do futebol", and criticism reached the stands. On 11 October, Flamengo supporters chanted insults against Lula after the team's 1-0 win over Fluminense in the clássico. Flamengo president Luiz Eduardo Baptista, known as Bap, told Poder360 on 25 September that he "had nothing to learn from Lula" about clubs' dependence on revenue from betting houses.

On 1 October, the last time he addressed the topic at length, Lula suggested clubs adopt the corporate model provided for in the SAFs law (sociedades anônimas de futebol). In his last mention of the clubs, on 8 October, Lula said: "You remember that three decades ago everyone only talked about becoming a company. Now you can become a company; why aren't you?" On 25 September, the day he signed the provisional measure that banned online betting, the president cited football examples: "Flamengo was champion in 81 without bet. São Paulo was champion three times without bet. Grêmio was champion without bet. Corinthians was champion without bet. After the bets, who won?" He added: "I didn't mention Palmeiras here because it didn't win anything."

In the second round the campaign redirected its narrative. The most cited words in radio inserts became "mudança", "escala" and "Flávio". The president increased references to a package of measures including the end of the 6x1 working schedule and debt relief for individual micro-entrepreneurs. After Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would vote in favour of the constitutional amendment proposal reducing working hours, the PT campaign began calling him "duas caras". As the offensive intensified, Lula's presence in the advertisements was replaced by an anonymous announcer.

The Flávio campaign did not respond to contacts made by email and WhatsApp at 1am on Friday 16 October, according to the source. On his change of position after a visit to his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, the PL candidate said it was an alignment with the wish of the majority of the population. The Lula campaign also did not respond to emails sent by the report since 1pm on Friday 16 October. Flávio's advertising began calling the government "pai do tigrinho", a reference to the inclusion of online slot machines in the regulation approved by Congress at the end of 2023; the modality was added to the text on a proposal by rapporteur Senator Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) and later accepted by the Finance Ministry, then under Fernando Haddad (PT).

Mentions of bets persist in the president's speeches at political events. To a group of supporters gathered in Natal, Lula said: "This is the march of those who no longer want bet robbing the poor people of this country." In his speeches Lula reiterates that online betting was sanctioned by former president Michel Temer (MDB) at the end of 2018, with an obligation to regulate within the following four years, and that the Bolsonaro government omitted itself from the requirement. According to the source, online gambling has been prohibited throughout the country since 25 October.