Kalshi froze and closed its Cardi B performance market at a weighted price after her Super Bowl halftime appearance, the company said. Traders filed a complaint with the CFTC alleging that Kalshi’s settlement rules were unfair and lacked clear criteria; Kalshi said the circumstances were ambiguous.
The complaint challenges Kalshi’s discretion and settlement criteria for event contracts.
The day’s most important stories, free. One email a day.
Two people in recovery from gambling problems said they relapsed after using prediction markets, the report said. Clinicians cited in the report described similarities in the experience of sports betting and prediction-market use, while prediction-market operators argue the products should be regulated like exchanges and state officials favour sportsbook-style oversight. The dispute continues in courts and legislatures.
Kalshi spent more than $1m on lobbying last year as casinos and prediction-market groups contested the legality of sports event contracts, the report says. It also paid Miller Strategies $430,000 and the Lincoln Policy Group $180,000; the report says casino and gambling-backed groups spent almost $50m on lobbying over the same period.
The CFTC, led by chairman Michael Selig, is backing Kalshi and Polymarket in a legal dispute over state authority to regulate prediction markets, according to a media report. The agency plans to file a court brief in Kalshi’s appeal after a federal judge temporarily barred the company from operating in Nevada; states allege the platforms breach gambling laws.
Acting CFTC chair Caroline Pham said prediction markets align with market oversight principles and linked them to the wider development of tokenized finance. The CFTC has not issued a conclusive ruling on whether sports-outcome contracts fall under federal futures oversight or state gambling laws, while states have challenged platforms including Kalshi.
OpenBet and Sportradar did not renew their American Gaming Association memberships this month, according to a review of the association’s membership list. The AGA said the departures reflect differences over prediction markets and its focus on state and tribal authority; neither company has disclosed its reasons. DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics had previously left after launching or announcing prediction-market products.