The Indian Gaming Association closed its 2025 webinar programme with a discussion opposing sports prediction markets. Participants argued that the platforms threaten tribal gaming rights and state authority, while operators maintain their activities are permitted under Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules.
The debate concerns the authority of states and tribes over sports-related prediction markets.
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CFTC chairman Michael Selig said the agency will enforce its authority over sports event contracts, despite the prospect of legal challenges from states. The CFTC is considering a regulatory framework for event contracts, while Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and state officials argue that the platforms amount to unlicensed sports wagering.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most US adults oppose prediction-market bets on elections and government decisions. The online survey of 4,506 adults, conducted from 30 September to 5 October, found 63% opposed bets on executive announcements and decisions; 69% of Democratic voters and 61% of Republican voters opposed election bets.
Reportedly, Tribal leaders and the American Gaming Association described closer coordination against prediction markets at G2E in Las Vegas. California Nations Indian Gaming Association is also organising a coalition ahead of a possible 2028 online sports betting initiative.
At the Las Vegas edition of G2E, the American Gaming Association and tribal leaders voiced a more unified pushback against prediction markets, and they singled out California as a central battleground. A Main Stage panel contended that sports event contracts from firms like Kalshi take revenue away from states and tribes and should not be accepted as legal substitutes for gambling.
The CFTC proposal on federal rules for sports and other prediction-market contracts has drawn objections from lawmakers, tribes, casinos, consumer advocates and former agency officials. Public comments reviewed in the report said authorities and industry groups in 20 states regard sports contracts as illegal gambling that should remain under state and local control; the proposal would likely permit contracts on scores and tournament results while restricting others.
Former CFTC chair Gary Gensler and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have joined growing opposition to prediction markets. Gensler, who chaired the CFTC from 2009 to 2014, filed an amicus brief supporting Ohio in its lawsuit with Kalshi on 11 June. The CME sued the CFTC on 18 June in DC federal court over perpetual futures.