Genius Sports reported Q3 revenue of $270m and adjusted EBITDA of $87m, and raised its annual revenue guidance to $1bn. Goldman Sachs, Stifel and Oppenheimer lowered their price targets after the results, while Macquarie kept its $11 target and trimmed its 2026–2028 EBITDA forecasts.
The results and divergent analyst views give investors updated performance figures and expectations for Genius Sports.
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Sportradar said its US revenue rose 47% to €98 million in the third quarter, with prediction-market partnerships contributing financially for the first time. Overall revenue increased 24% to €363 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 21% to €102 million. Chief executive Carsten Koerl said the company served Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig and Robinhood.
Genius Sports chief executive Mark Locke said prediction-market growth was accelerating benefits from its Legend acquisition. He cited customer-acquisition demand, official data and commercial agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket during the second-quarter earnings call.
Genius Sports CEO Mark Locke said the company’s separate agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket support its expansion in prediction markets. The deals provide sports data for settling contracts, alongside information-sharing and integrity services, with restrictions on some market types and greater trading visibility.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon said stronger NFL betting margins in November and December could help DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment exceed fourth-quarter earnings expectations. Macquarie estimated full-quarter hold rates of about 12% for Flutter and 9% for DraftKings, with potential additional EBITDA of $100 million to $200 million and $50 million to $100 million, respectively. The companies were scheduled to report results on 26 February and 12 February, respectively.
A B. Riley analyst said Genius Sports could benefit as prediction markets expand, including through data agreements with sportsbook operators entering event contracts. Josh Nichols reiterated a buy rating and a $14 price target; he also cited potential demand linked to sports contracts in California and Texas.