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Eilers & Krejcik projects $1 trillion US prediction-market volume

Regulation

Eilers & Krejcik’s outlook projects that US prediction markets could reach $1 trillion in annual volume at maturity, including about $435 billion in sports contracts. The research says growth depends on the unresolved legal dispute between federal prediction-market oversight and state sports-betting regimes, which it expects to involve litigation and appeals.

The projected sports-contract volume indicates potential competition for sportsbooks if prediction markets expand under a federal framework.

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Regulation

Stifel note shows US sportsbook handle outpacing prediction market taker volume

US sportsbook handle rose 43% month-on-month in September, outpacing growth in taker volume on CFTC-regulated prediction markets, according to a Stifel note. Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial estimated taker volume at about $17.7bn, up 27%, while notional volume across regulated prediction markets rose 64% to $77bn.

US sportsbook handle grew faster than taker volume on prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in September, according to a Stifel note. Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial estimated that monthly taker volume across the industry reached about $17.7bn, a rise of 27%, while sportsbook handle in reporting states rose 43% month-on-month.

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