EKG’s analysis says a mature US prediction market ecosystem could exceed $1tn in annual trading volume. It estimates sports would account for 44% of that total, with non-sports markets making up the rest.
The forecast points to potential competition for betting operators across sports and non-sports markets.
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Novig reported $128m in trading volume during its first week offering prediction markets. The startup claimed this was almost 20 times Kalshi’s volume when it introduced sports event contracts in early 2025.
Novig reported that its federally regulated prediction market exceeded USD125m in notional trading volume in its first week. The sports-focused exchange also faces regulatory disputes in five states.
Reportedly, Kalshi faces scrutiny over its crypto-perpetual trading volumes. A quantitative analyst flagged Ethereum turnover of $539m over 24 hours against open interest of $3.1m, raising questions about how prediction markets calculate trading activity.
Eilers & Krejcik Gaming said prediction markets operating in Texas may not persuade lawmakers to approve sports betting, according to its report. The analysts said lawmakers could instead regulate sports prediction markets directly or wait for a potential US Supreme Court ruling before acting; Texas policymakers are expected to consider sports betting legislation in 2027.
Prediction markets recorded average daily trading volume of $4.13bn in October, up 55% from September, according to figures attributed to Jefferies analyst Daniel Fannon. Open interest rose 45% to $3.27bn, while sports contracts accounted for 78% of total volume. Polymarket's average daily volume reached $655m, up 50% month on month.