Citizens’ analysis found Kalshi’s NFL pre-game odds on 26 December were 8% worse than FanDuel’s and 6% worse than DraftKings’ when transaction fees were included. The analysis also put Kalshi’s average transaction fee at $1.62 per 100 contracts and its parlay implied vig at 28%, excluding that fee.
The pricing comparison informs operators’ assessment of prediction markets as competition in legal sports betting states.
Quarter ended 30 September 2026
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DraftKings is promoting its DraftKings Predictions platform in California and pursuing expansion in Georgia, Texas and Florida, according to the report. The article says prediction-market operators argue their products fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation rather than state gambling laws, a position disputed by some state regulators. It also reports that the debate has divided the gambling industry.
US casino operators are investing in dining, concerts and other attractions to draw Gen Z visitors, citing Bloomberg News. Penn Entertainment opened its $360m Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora near Chicago in June, replacing a riverboat casino.
Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender estimated that US prediction markets account for about 5% of regulated sports betting volume, equivalent to roughly US$8bn annually. The analysis said operators without prediction-market exposure could face a slight negative effect; it also reported average bets of US$185 on prediction platforms, compared with US$55 at regulated online sportsbooks.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered designated contract markets to end US geofencing that conflicts with impartial-access requirements within 30 days, or explain why they cannot comply. The order puts exchanges offering sports-event contracts at odds with court orders restricting Kalshi in several states and on tribal lands. Chairman Michael S. Selig said derivatives markets must operate nationally.
Within 30 days, designated contract markets must end geofencing restrictions in the U.S. that violate “impartial access requirements,” or give reasons they cannot comply, the CFTC has ordered. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said in a statement that derivatives markets "must operate on a uniform basis at a national scale" to serve the purposes of the Commodity Exchange Act.
DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and PrizePicks have restricted some prediction market products in Utah after Utah Attorney General Derek Brown filed 14 criminal charges against Kalshi. DraftKings and FanDuel retain financial contracts, while Fanatics plans to stop taking trades in the state on 4 November; PrizePicks has disabled Team Picks and Culture Picks.
Utah's 14 criminal charges against Kalshi have led DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and PrizePicks to pare back what they offer in prediction markets there. How far each operator goes differs.