The CFTC is reportedly examining whether Kalshi properly notified it about dozens of betting contracts under development, potentially leading to enforcement action. Kalshi said the matter involved a procedural error affecting a handful of contracts, many of which were not live, and that it was addressing the issue.
Potential charges could affect how prediction-market operators notify the CFTC about products.
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Underdog sued Missouri in federal court on 8 November, seeking an injunction against enforcement action over its sports prediction markets. The company says the attorney general’s office warned on 6 November that action would begin within three days; its suit cites earlier compliance deadlines of 17 October and 30 October.
Nevada senator Catherine Cortez Masto said sports prediction markets constitute gambling and criticised a CFTC directive on access to federally regulated exchanges. The directive gave exchanges 30 days to comply or explain why they could not, a requirement that the coverage says complicates operators’ responses to state court orders.
Federally regulated exchanges have 30 days to lift restrictions based on traders’ residence within the United States or explain why they cannot, under an order issued last week by the CFTC. The order added compliance difficulties for prediction market operators facing court-ordered access limits in states including Michigan, Nevada and Washington.
The CFTC issued guidance saying state-based geographic restrictions generally conflict with impartial-access requirements for designated contract markets in the United States. It gave exchanges 30 days to remove conflicting blocks or explain to the Division of Market Oversight, with supporting evidence, why compliance is not feasible. The same framework applies to intermediaries and other entities providing market access.
The CFTC said state-based geographic restrictions on prediction markets are generally inconsistent with its impartial access rules, and gave operators and exchanges 30 days to lift them or explain why they cannot. The agency issued the guidance on Thursday as a formal interpretation of its impartial access requirements for designated contract markets. It said location alone should not be used to deny access to eligible participants within the United States.
The CFTC said on 5 November that registered designated contract markets must remove domestic geographic restrictions that conflict with its fair-access requirements within 30 days. Exchanges must also ensure partner intermediaries comply, or explain in writing why they cannot; the guidance comes amid state court orders requiring restrictions in several states.
The CFTC said on 5 November that registered prediction market operators must unblock geoblocked states within 30 days. Under its new interpretative guidance, designated contract markets that cannot comply may instead explain in writing why they cannot.
The US mid-term election brought Democrats control of the House and Senate, while state regulators and prediction-market operators continue to dispute the legality of sports event contracts. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport asked the Supreme Court in September to review whether federal law prevents states from regulating those contracts; a law professor quoted in the report said he expects the court to hear the challenge.
New Jersey Atty. Gen. Jennifer Davenport petitioned the Supreme Court in September to consider whether states may regulate sports offerings on prediction markets. Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the mid-term election.