DGOJ links prediction markets to betting exchange rules in Spain
Regulation2 min read
Spain’s DGOJ described prediction markets as cross-betting products in a 26 May notice, while its director general reiterated at MERGE Madrid in late October that gambling products require a licence to operate in Spain. The notice did not specify which licence applies; the article interprets the existing cross-betting category as potentially relevant. Italy’s 2013 rules allow player-to-player betting on non-sporting events, but the source says such events have not become part of a working exchange market.
Spain's DGOJ described prediction markets as player-to-player cross-betting in a 26 May notice, but did not say which licence applies, according to an analysis on an Italian gambling industry site. The author said a link to an existing cross-betting licence was an interpretation.
DGOJ director general Mikel Arana reiterated at MERGE Madrid in late October that products considered gambling under Spanish law need a licence to operate in Spain. The DGOJ had already opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in May and ordered their sites blocked as a precaution.
Spain's Ley 13/2011 defines cross-betting as a product in which the operator intermediates and acts as guarantor between players, retaining a commission. Orden HAP/1369/2014 provides for three individual cross-betting licences, covering sports, horse racing and other events, in addition to a general betting licence. Events can concern society, media, the economy, entertainment and culture. Bets are limited to events on the operator's programme, and the DGOJ can request the suspension and withdrawal of a bet that breaches the rules. A separate 2011 order explicitly includes politics among non-sporting events for fixed-odds betting against an operator.
Italy's ministerial decree 47 of 2013 permits remote fixed-odds betting between players on sporting and non-sporting events, with a commission charged to the player. Events must come from the ADM's official programme or supplementary programmes established by the licensee. Licensees must apply for activation and provide platform certification from an accredited body. The author said non-sporting events permitted by the decree had not developed into a functioning player-to-player exchange programme.
The ADM treats prediction markets as illegal gambling. Polymarket and Kalshi appeared on its blocked-sites list updated on 13 October and effective from 29 October.
In late October, a Flutter spokesperson said Betfair would leave Italy because regulatory changes had made its exchange unsustainable, without specifying the changes. The author argued that restricted player liquidity was a further issue for the Italian exchange. The ADM signed an online poker liquidity-sharing agreement with France, Spain and Portugal in 2017, but Italy has never implemented it. The author argued that opening Italy's exchange to prediction markets would require a programme of non-sporting events and shared liquidity.