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CFTC advisory committee debates prediction-market manipulation claims

Regulation

A Commodity Futures Trading Commission Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on 20 August featured CME Group chief executive Terry Duffy challenging Kalshi over self-certified event contracts and possible manipulation. An episode discussing the meeting cited trading linked to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and an alleged trade ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled remarks.

The dispute centres on the integrity and jurisdiction of US prediction markets, affecting platforms and their counterparties.

End-of-day close DraftKings (DKNG), USD, to 12 October 2026
Story date14 July 202612 October 2026

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Regulation

CFTC warns prediction market exchanges about manipulation risks in mention markets

The CFTC warned prediction market exchanges about manipulation risks in markets involving public figures’ statements or actions. The report also covered NCPG’s response to criticism of its industry funding model linked to prediction markets.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned prediction market exchanges that contracts tied to public figures' statements or actions carry heightened manipulation risks, according to a staff advisory issued by the agency's Division of Market Oversight. The advisory does not ban the contracts. It encourages exchanges to consult the regulator while designing such contracts, to establish whether heightened manipulation risks exist and whether controls can mitigate them.

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