Brazilian columnist challenges figures cited at hearing on betting measure
Regulation2 min read
An opinion column on a Brazilian betting industry site disputed figures presented by the government at a Supreme Court public hearing on MP 1.394. The columnist challenged estimates on betting participation and harm, and argued that survey responses favouring prohibition differed when respondents were offered regulatory alternatives.
An opinion column on a Brazilian betting industry site challenged figures the government presented at a Supreme Court hearing on betting measure MP 1.394, arguing that they did not withstand scrutiny.
The columnist said the estimate of 28 million bettors came from 684 responses collected before the law regulating the sector. The columnist said the estimate of 1.4 million people with a gambling disorder profile rested on about 30 respondents, while a figure for a 15-fold increase in suicide risk came from patients already diagnosed. The columnist said a cited 200% increase in the public health system was 140% by the ministry's own account.
The columnist argued that an increase of 2,300% in leave from work for gambling addiction was misleading without absolute figures. The column cited 276 benefits granted over nearly two years and, using Labour Ministry data, 363 instances of leave in 2025, against a population of 25 million bettors.
The columnist questioned surveys showing more than 70% support for prohibition, saying Datafolha and AtlasIntel asked whether online betting should be prohibited without presenting the consequences of a ban. In an April 2026 CNT/MDA survey offering alternatives, 38.4% chose prohibition and about half preferred options including tighter oversight, advertising restrictions, limits on amounts or stronger age controls, the columnist said.
Denmark reached 91.5% channelisation after more than a decade, using deposit limits, a self-exclusion register and blocks on illegal sites, the columnist said. The columnist said US research found that legalisation of online sports betting was followed by lower savings and higher debt among vulnerable households.
The column said authorised operators had been required to monitor customers' behaviour, suggest limits and suspend high-risk accounts. More than one million people used self-exclusion in less than a year, the columnist said, arguing that the measure had rendered the tool ineffective because illegal sites do not consult the register. The columnist said the measure had ended the share of betting revenue that law allocated to healthcare.
The columnist said the measure preserved Caixa lotteries while prohibiting regulated betting. Citing Finance Ministry data, the column said regulated betting operators' revenue represented 16.7% of deposits in 2025. For Mega-Sena and other numerical lotteries, 43.79% of receipts form the gross prize pool, the column said, citing Law 13.756/2018.
The columnist said a report called Mulheres & Bets, submitted to the Supreme Court rapporteur by the first lady, recommended gradual restrictions with monitoring at each stage.