Brazil’s betting ban is forecast to shift R$25bn to illegal operators

Brazil's federal government banned the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting across the country on 25 September 2026, according to an opinion article. The article says the measure was Provisional Measure No 1.394.

A report released in October by the International Betting Integrity Association (Ibia), based on H2 Gambling Capital estimates, says about 60% of the volume in the legal market, close to R$25bn, will continue to be wagered with unlicensed operators. The article says the illegal market is expected to rise from R$17bn to R$42bn.

Data from the platform Blask showed offshore sites accounted for 3.4% of betting demand on the eve of the provisional measure. Four days later the share reached 9.9%, the highest since regulation began, according to the article. The article notes that the indicator measures searches. Of the more than 25 million Brazilians who bet on regulated platforms until September, the projection is that about 21.6 million will keep betting, almost all beyond the reach of the state.

The article says that more than 5 million Brazilians were blocked from betting by the regulated market's safeguards in August 2026. According to Ibia, alerts involving Brazilian sport rose from an average of 11 a year between 2021 and 2024 to 25 in 2025.

On 25 October 2026, 85 federal authorisations were terminated without reimbursement of the R$30m paid for each grant, the article says. The article puts the total invested by those companies at R$2.55bn. It also says the measure affected dozens of clubs and competitions with contracts in force.

Congress can vote on the measure until early March 2027, and almost 100 amendments have been filed, according to the article. The article adds that the Supreme Federal Court has not yet ruled on it.