IBIA warns betting ban could expand Brazil’s illegal market

Brazil imposed a national ban on fixed-odds betting, including sports betting and online gaming, on 25 September, according to a study by the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA). The measure is being implemented while Congress considers whether to make it permanent, the report said. The ban came 21 months after Brazil opened its regulated betting market.

IBIA said its study drew on regulatory assessments, market estimates and suspicious-betting data, and that Khalid Ali, its chief executive, examined the consequences for sports integrity, consumers and the regulated market. The association said the ban risks undoing progress by pushing betting outside the control of the authorities and weakening the mechanisms set up to detect and prevent match-fixing. It called on Congress to review Provisional Measure No. 1.394/2026 through a risk and impact assessment based on data and supported by open dialogue with the sector.

According to the report, Brazil authorised more than 80 operators in less than two years, introduced customer identification requirements, acted against illegal betting sites and their payment channels, and set up a centralised self-exclusion system. Licensed operators were required to monitor suspicious bets, report anomalies and cooperate with national or international sports integrity monitoring organisations. IBIA's comparative assessment of regulatory frameworks scored Brazil at 77 out of 100, placing it between Portugal at 68 and Great Britain at 86.

H2 Gambling Capital, a market intelligence and gambling data company, estimates that without a legal alternative about 60% of the activity currently handled by Brazil's regulated market, equivalent to about R$25bn, could move to unlicensed operators. On that basis, the illegal market could grow from the current R$17bn to about R$42bn, the report said. IBIA said consumers could end up betting with operators outside the jurisdiction of the Brazilian authorities, without the same identity checks, responsible gambling protections or reporting obligations, while the authorities would lose access to information that licensed operators are required to provide.

On sports integrity, IBIA said it reported 25 alerts on suspicious betting concerning Brazilian sport in 2025, the first full year of operation of the regulated market, against an annual average of 11 reports between 2021 and 2024. The association said the increase should not be read as proof that regulation made Brazilian sport less safe, but was consistent with improved detection and reporting in a market where licensed operators were required to identify and report suspicious activity. It said a fall in reports after a ban would not necessarily mean fewer suspicious bets, and could simply indicate that less information is available.

IBIA said the regulated Brazilian market was not without problems, and that advertising, consumer protection, operator supervision and action against illegal providers all required further work, but it described these as arguments for improving regulation rather than abandoning it. The association asked Congress to reconsider the ban and to let the future of the Brazilian betting market be decided through the normal legislative process, based on open dialogue with the sector, a clear risk assessment and a published impact assessment. It said the existing integrity framework, including suspicious-betting monitoring, reporting obligations and cooperation with the authorities, should be preserved, and that enforcement should focus on unlicensed operators.