Brazil restricts prediction-market platforms as World Cup trading may reach US$10bn
Prediction-market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket face restrictions in Brazil, where the activity is permitted only in the economic and financial sphere under securities regulator CVM oversight, the report said. Analysts at Bernstein estimate World Cup 2026 could add about US$3 billion in bets and take total platform trading volume to as much as US$10 billion. Sports and political contracts are barred outside regulated sports betting.
Platforms must distinguish permitted financial activity from barred sports and political contracts under Brazil’s prediction-market restrictions.