Bookmakers keep Flavio Bolsonaro at 1.23 for Brazil runoff

Bookmakers Sisal and Snai have Flavio Bolsonaro at odds of 1.23 to win Brazil's presidential runoff on 25 October, while incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula has shortened from 5.50 to 3.75 over a week. Bolsonaro's odds moved from 1.12 seven days earlier. The runoff is between Lula and Bolsonaro, who won the first round with 47% against 45% for the incumbent.

Lula backed a provisional measure that bans online betting for two months from 6 October. Online betting was regulated during his term from 1 January 2025. Reportedly, Lula sought support in more conservative parts of the electorate that are traditionally opposed to gambling, but the outlet reported that the measure did not appear to have produced that result.

The ban needs Congress approval to become definitive, and Agipronews reported that the outcome of the runoff is tied to the fate of the measure. The outlet said it remained to be seen whether the runoff could change the scenario.