CLSA and Citigroup analysts estimated that Macau casino industry EBITDA rose 7% to 8% year on year in the first quarter, behind the 14.3% increase in gross gaming revenue. Citigroup put industry EBITDA margin at about 27%, while CLSA estimated 25.3%.
The estimates indicate that revenue growth did not translate into equivalent earnings growth for Macau casino operators.
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CLSA expects Macau’s casino sector to report Q3 EBITDA of just under US$1.84bn, down 11% year on year. Analyst Jeffrey Kiang’s Monday note linked the forecast decline to a 3.8% fall in quarterly gross gaming revenue.
Sands China reported a decline in second-quarter profit, as Macao casino operators continued a difficult start to the second half of the year. The company's share price rose to almost HKD 14 ($1.80) by the end of last week.
Las Vegas Sands reported second-quarter 2026 net revenue of $3.15 billion, down from $3.18 billion a year earlier, and net income of $373 million, compared with $519 million. The company attributed the results partly to weak VIP gaming hold in Macao and reduced high-value customer travel during the World Cup; its board also authorised a $6.0 billion share repurchase amount through 21 July 2029.
It was reported that Sands China earned US$107m in the three months ending 30 June, a 50% year-on-year decline. Revenue fell 0.8% to US$1.78bn.
Citi expects Macau’s casino industry EBITDA to decline 7% year on year to US$1.923bn in the second quarter of 2026, citing the World Cup and unfavourable hold rates. The bank also forecasts a 12% quarter-on-quarter fall and says Galaxy Entertainment could gain 1.7 percentage points of market share while Sands China loses 2.5 points.