Citigroup forecasts Macau gross gaming revenue of MOP22.5 billion in May, a 6% year-on-year increase, citing industry sources. The projection requires average daily revenue of about MOP704 million for the rest of the month; the bank points to scheduled concerts and a UFC event as possible demand drivers.
The forecast gives Macau casino operators and investors an estimate of May revenue and the daily pace needed to reach it.
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Macau’s DICJ approved new baccarat side bets, and all six concessionaires have introduced at least one option, according to Citigroup analysts. They estimated the bets’ house advantage at 16% to 18%, compared with about 1% for Banker and Player bets, but said most players may not yet have encountered the new wagers.
CLSA and Citigroup analysts estimated that Macau casino industry EBITDA rose 7% to 8% year on year in the first quarter, behind the 14.3% increase in gross gaming revenue. Citigroup put industry EBITDA margin at about 27%, while CLSA estimated 25.3%.
Macau’s gaming sector is expected to grow EBITDA by about 8% year on year in Q1 2026, according to Citigroup analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau. Gross gaming revenue reached MOP65.87 billion, up 14%, while VIP performance and hold rates weighed on margins. Citigroup expects Sands China to record the strongest operator EBITDA growth, at about 20%.
Macau's six casino concessionaires signed on as limited partners in the Macau SAR Government Guidance Fund on 23 October, committing a combined MOP9bn ($1.12bn). With MOP11bn from fiscal reserves, the fund starts with about MOP20bn ($2.48bn). Commitments count toward the operators' non-gaming investment pledges under concessions running to 2032.
Citi’s August survey of Macau premium-mass casino tables recorded a 27% annual increase in average wagers per player. Observed wagers totalled HKD14.3m, up 7% from a year earlier, while player numbers declined.