An Italian-language analysis of US prediction markets described conflicting court positions on state efforts to restrict platforms including Kalshi. It said a Nevada injunction was later revoked, while a Tennessee injunction remained in place, and characterised the wider legal question as unresolved.
Different court outcomes leave prediction-market operators facing varied legal conditions across US states.
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US states are challenging prediction markets that offer event contracts they argue amount to sports betting, according to the report. The dispute concerns whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or state gambling authorities have regulatory authority, and which consumer protections apply.
A bipartisan group of 41 state attorneys general urged the CFTC to confirm that states, rather than federal regulators, have authority over sports-related event contracts. In a formal comment on proposed prediction-market rules, the coalition argued that these contracts function as gambling and should fall under state regulation.
The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council sent cease-and-desist notices to three unlicensed sports gaming operators, according to the report. The report says the council pushed the operators out of the state.
A federal appeals court ruled on 6 April that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over Kalshi’s sports event contracts, preventing New Jersey regulators from stopping the platform in the state. The 2-1 panel upheld a 2025 lower-court ruling; the decision adds to conflicting court rulings that could ultimately reach the US Supreme Court.
The Ninth Circuit ruled in a Nevada case that federal law does not bar states from applying gambling laws to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes said she is reviewing the ruling; it does not resolve Arizona’s separate case over election-related contracts, which remains blocked by a federal judge.